1980 NL Central Preview

Although the NL Central is only three years old, it has already acquired the reputation as the toughest division in all of baseball. This toughness was on full display in the 1979 season, with the division as a whole posting a Pythagorean record 100 games over .500, or a per-team average record of 91-71. All three of the Cincinnati Reds, St. Louis Cardinals, and Pittsburgh Pirates were very much in the mix for the crown throughout the year, with the Reds eventually pulling out on top in the final week of the season. However, the strength of the division took a toll the Reds, as they were unable to secure home field advantage and suffered a first-round defeat in five games to the San Francisco Giants. St. Louis and Pittsburgh also felt the burden of the 1979 NL Central: both missed out on the wildcard as the Montreal Expos played through an easier schedule and finished a whopping +12 wins over their BaseRuns projected record. Here are the (non-nerd) standings from 1979:

But 1980 is a brand new year, with BaseRuns reset back to zero. Who will stand atop this mighty division? The Reds, Cardinals, and Pirates all return the majority of their teams from last season, with the Chicago Cubs making some improvements to another already-solid team. The Houston Astros will mostly look to play spoiler later in the year, but may challenge for the title in a few seasons. Let's take a closer look at the teams and players involved, shall we?

Despite their record, the 1979 Houston Astros played a lot of close games, backed by the solid pitching of Dave Savino (5.5 WAR), Jason Green (3.5 WAR in 21 GS), and Mike Glinski (3.5 WAR in 17 GS), and the bat/defense combo of rising star SS Justin Williams (3.7 WAR). When paired with their cavernous ballpark, it is no surprise that scoring runs on this team was difficult. Scoring runs FOR this team, however, was also difficult, as they finished third-last in runs last season with 607. The Astros will thus need to figure out how to consistently manufacture scoring opportunities before they will be able to compete.

Unfortunately, help on the offensive side may not be coming anytime soon. Restricted by a miserly owner, the Astros have been forced to settle for FA bargains, headlined by the signing of 35-year-old 1B Shotaro Miyahra (1.1 WAR last season). Dumping the -1.4 WAR Mike Luecke should also help the Astros improve, but without an immediate influx of young talent or further growth from the incumbents, it looks to be another long year for the Astros at the plate.

On the other hand, the Astros have a formidable young rotation that will look to keep pace with the offense on run prevention. Despite Savino's departure (traded to the Tigers), the Astros return Green and Glinski, along with 1977 first rounder Viggo Dahl (2.0 WAR in 11 GS). Two promising pieces were also added in the offseason and look to feature in the 1980 rotation: LHP Casey Jaffe -- the 93rd overall prospect and part of the Savino return -- and RHP Aaron Putnam -- a high stuff-control pitcher who seems to be a good fit for the Astrodome. Any wins that the Astros get this year will likely be led by the pitching staff, and they have quite a bright future here.

The Chicago Cubs entered the 1979 season with low expectations, seemingly in yet another year of rebuilding, having finished 1978 with a record of 52-110. These Cubs were not like the Cubs of years past, though, as they turned the narrative upside-down (Cubs Good!) and registered their first winning season since 1967. The theme here was spectacular defense backing extreme groundball pitching: the Cubs led the league with a +73 ZR -- over 20 points higher than the second-place Cardinals -- and tied for first in groundball rate at 54.1%. Getting 8.9 WAR and a 1.034 OPS from rookie-of-the-year runner-up Jared McCombs didn't hurt either, as he led an offense that finally showed signs of life. Futher development from their young pitchers and hitters should propel the Cubs into contention in the next few seasons.

Run prevention is the Cubs' top priorirty, and the offseason improvements to the pitching staff should further this agenda. Gone are aging starters Frank Nava (shocking 1.9 WAR in 17 GS) and Nate Croteau (0.7 WAR in 79 IP), along with reliever Travis McLain (1.4 WAR in 89 IP). In their place, the Cubs secured a nice buy-low on SP Joe Johnson (3.9 WAR in 1979, 6.4 WAR in 1978) along with highly-regarded prospect Jonathan Flores -- seen by some as an eventual rotation anchor. Look for improvements as well from 1978 top pick Charles Ashley, and continued solid play from de facto ace Vilheim Chemnitz (4.8 WAR, 2.85 ERA) and senior citizen Bob Bolli (3.8 WAR, 3.76 ERA). All told, the Cubs focus on movement, control, and defense should set their staff up for another strong showing. Much like the Astros (although a better version of this build), the Cubs have placed less of an emphasis on run scoring. The Cubs return the otherworldly McCombs, but allowed OF Bill Shannon and his 5.0 WAR to walk in free agency. The only other player with an OPS north of .800 last year was 1B Aaron Brands; the switch-hitter posted an .821 OPS and 4.1 WAR, but has an uncharacteristically weak power profile for a first baseman. The rest of the lineup places a much stronger focus on defense over hitting, with SS Tony Nava as the posterchild: his 4.1 WAR came almost exclusively from his defensive prowess (+35 ZR) and not his bat (.631 OPS). Prospect Javier "Future" Ortiz profiles as a well above-average outfielder but is unlikely to hit the majors this season, and so the Cubs will need to pray that McCombs can put the offense on his back yet again if they hope to sniff the playoffs this year.

One other point to watch this year is the changing of the park factors. Overnight, the Cubs went from a ballpark strongly favouring RHB power to one strongly favouring LHB power. Could this hurt a lineup based mainly around right-handed bats, and a staff based mainly around right-handed pitching? Two other teams in the division also saw an increase in LHB power (Pittsburgh and Cincinnati), so it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

The Pittsburgh Pirates hit the ground running in 1979 -- with playoff odds as high as 82% on August 5 -- but faltered down the stretch as the schedule became more difficult and regression set in. Nevertheless, the Pirates still finished with a very solid record on the strength of a well-balanced squad, the majority of which is returning this season. Led by young stars CF Eddie Salazar (7.8 WAR), 1B Adam McGahee (5.8 WAR), and SP Josh Haun (6.2 WAR), the Pirates boast a core that has many productive years ahead. However, the rest of the team is not getting any younger, with Pittsburgh having the highest average age leaguewide (29 years old) at the time of writing. The Pirates may thus be at a bit of a crossroads this year, but some bounce-back performances could ameliorate any concerns and propel them right back into contention.

In this writer's opinion, staff ace Josh Haun is a top candidate for a resurgence. He is only just entering his prime and posted a pitcher-of-the-year campaign in 1978 with 8.0 WAR and 2.42 ERA. Expect a return to those numbers this season. Haun is followed in the rotation by the dependable Kyle Suchecki (at least 5.2 WAR each of his last three seasons), the two-way threat Gary Luzzi (4.9 WAR, 40/55/40/55/55 OSA bat), and the recently-acquired Larry Abramowski (6.3 WAR, 1970s all-decade team). With these names, it is no surprise that Pittsburgh projects to have the 4th-best rotation according to OSA. Expect some solid run prevention from the Pirates in 1980. However, unlike the last two teams, the Pirates' bats should also win a number of games for them. Pittsburgh has a third young star besides Salazar and McGahee, as 27-year-old 3B Spencer "Gremlin" Ritter has provided a serious spark over the past two seasons (5.8 WAR in 1978, 6.0 WAR in 1979). The lineup also contains three strong candidates for improvement: 25-year-old 2B Corey Stover (1.9 WAR) was once a highly regarded prospect and appears to have some development left; LF Pete Jones (-0.6 WAR) posted a major outlier season after 5.8 WAR in 1978 and 4.9 WAR in 1977 (although he may now be relegated to a platoon role); and RF Xi-Wang Lum had his season derailed by injuries (0.9 WAR in 46 games) after posting 22 WAR over his previous 4 campaigns. Look for these players to shine a bit more in 1980. The Pirates also added C Brad Sweet (2.1 WAR in 66 games) and LF Mark Doucet (2.3 WAR) in the offseason to further bolster their lineup. Pittsburgh's hitters are a force to be reckoned with and underestimated at one's own peril.

The St. Louis Cardinals' highly unconvential pitching management style continued to be effective in the 1979 season. Led by CF Justin "not an all-star" Johnson (7.8 WAR) and LH RP Jorge Rodriguez (4.0 WAR), the Cardinals held the lead in the NL Central as late as September. However, they could not keep up with the Reds down the stretch, and unluckily finished outside of the playoffs despite leading the NL in run differential. Entering the 1980 season, St. Louis returns much of the same batting core with an improving young bullpen as the nucleus of their pitching staff. Expect this team's floor to be the 95-win average they have put up over the last five seasons, with a championship run as their ceiling.

The Cardinals are defined by their aforementioned pitching strategy: they run a four-man rotation with each having a pitch count around 50. This allows for increased bullpen usage, fewer plate appearances by pitchers, and less of a reliance on elite starters. That being said, St. Louis does boast two very strong SPs in Kevin Rodriguez (2.9 WAR, 2.79 ERA in 142 IP) and Jay Field (2.0 WAR over 138 IP in a down year) who will continue to serve the Cardinals well. But the heart and soul of this team is the bullpen, whose excellence makes this strategy viable. Aside from Rodriguez, the Cardinals possess three young, ML-ready relievers brimming with potential: 21-year-old RHP Aaron Daniels (OSA POT 80/65/55), 22-year-old RHP Steven Nelson (also 80/65/55), and 22-year-old LHP Bryan Leek (65/60/65, ex-red). Further improvements from these players will take this pitching staff from very good to absolutely dominant. When combined with the Cardinals' stellar defense (+53 ZR, 2nd leaguewide) and the vast Busch Stadium (0.854 HR factor), opposing hitters look to be in serious trouble when facing St. Louis this year.

The Cardinals return much of the same lineup from a season ago. Young star 2B Roger MacNeill (5.2 WAR), LF Ron Anderson (3.5 WAR in 114 GS), and SS Garrett Myron (2.9 WAR in 112 GS) combine with Justin Johnson to provide a solid offensive core without making sacrifices defensively. The departure of 3B Kevin Cacioppo (4.1 WAR) could hurt, but he is being replaced by what looks to be a solid platoon led by Bill Underwood (1.5 WAR over 429 PAs in a down year). Worth watching is STL's performance against LHP this year, as short-platoon bats 2B Trevor Smith (2.1 WAR in just 210 PAs) and 1B Shotaro Miyahara (1.1 WAR in 215 PAs) also left in free agency, although 1B/2B Craig Bassett could serve as an answer here. Expect another year of above-average offensive production from St. Louis, bolstered by pinch-hitting and platooning.

Coming off a 116-win championship season in 1978, followed by a blockbuster trade for superstar 2B Jeff Karr, expectations were sky-high for the Cincinnati Reds entering the 1979 season. Early in the year, however, the Reds were unable to live up to these lofty ideals, as they battled injuries (Karr, RF Mitch Woodward, CF Hector Guitierez, SP Adam McCloy) and ineffectiveness (C Kellen Anis, CF Tom Finley) on their way to a fourth-place spot at one point in mid-June. But Cincinnati eventually got healthy and made some lineup changes, which catapulted them to their third straight division championship by the end of the year. This was not enough to repeat in the world series though, as they dropped the NLDS in five games to a strong San Francisco Giants team. The 1980 Reds are out for revenge and will look to ride their young core of hitters and established group of pitchers into a deep playoff run.

Cincinnati boasts a formidable rotation rated first overall by (the much-maligned) OSA. At the top is three-time pitcher-of-the-year Adrian Pugh (9.6 WAR, 2.43 ERA), who is showing no signs of slowing down as he enters his 6th major league season. Behind Pugh is the 23-year-old lefty Jeff Dunn (5.7 WAR), who has posted a 22-6 record in each of his first two seasons in the majors (pitcher wins!). The fragile Adam McCloy (2.9 WAR in 127 IP) and control-artist Max Fulkerson (5.2 WAR) provide a very solid 3-4 punch. The fifth spot in the rotation has changed: righty Chris Baca (3.9 WAR in 190 IP) has been replaced by 21-year-old lefty Dave Nixon (OSA POT 50/60/55) in an effort to mitigate damage from the new 1.40 LH HR factor at Riverfront Stadium. The Reds' pitching -- combined with their 5th-highest ZR last year -- should win them a fair number of games this upcoming season.

The Reds return much of the same hitters as last year but with some small tweaks. SS Antonio Perez (8.8 WAR), Karr (6.8 WAR), and 3B Chris Seubert (5.9 WAR) remain staples of the Cincinnati lineup. The slightly underperforming 3B Bill Underwood was shipped off to St. Louis in exchange for young 1B John Block (OSA 60/60/60/55/65 vs RHP) who will slide into a soft platoon with incumbent 1B Raul Guzman (3.2 WAR in 355 PAs). The outfield is manned by promising young players LF Quinn Freiman (3.3 WAR in 108 GS), CF Hector Guitierez (2.5 WAR in 99 GS), and RF Mitch Woodward (0.8 WAR in 52 GS), who will need to stay healthy to remain effective moving forward. The greatest shift for the Reds hitters this year however could be the new park factors; look for improvements from LHBs Freiman and Karr, and perhaps even Perez? Conversely, keep an eye on Guzman and Seubert for signs of decline, as the park plays less favourably to RHB now, and Seubert just turned 33 years old. When taking everything into account, expect some improved offensive performance from Cincinnati this year assuming that their players can stay healthy for the most part.

As noted above, the Reds, Cardinals, and Pirates return much of the same teams as last year and so we'd expect performances somewhat in line with the past. The Cubs have improved their pitching staff, and thus should be an improved team overall, but will have to contend with changing park factors that could become problematic. The Astros lost their staff ace and do not have much promise on the offensive side of things, which does not bode well for their chances next season. All told, here are my projected standings for the 1980 NL Central:

Complaints Department