1981 NL Central Preview

Chicago Cubs

Added: RF Bill Shannon (2.1 WAR), LF J. Robertson (1.0 WAR), P J. Acosta (AAA), LF T. Acosta (AAA), P O. Lomeli (A), P R. DeSmith (A), RF S. Elrod (A-), LF Sam Lawson (A-), CF G. Cooper (A-), P V. Sutton (R), RF T. Sierra (R)

Lost: RF M. Fellows (0.3 WAR), 3B A. Brands (-0.1 WAR), 3B N. Van Landingham (-0.3 WAR), C G. Ordonez (-0.4 WAR), P A. Gonzalez (AAA), C B. Stawarz (AAA), 2B L. Mack (AA), P A. Alfaro (A-),2B D. Barrett (A-), C B. Maurer (A-), C D. Gonzalez (R), CF J. Martinez (INT), CF C. Tello (INT)

"Cubs good" Daniel Mays

After a breakout '79 season with 88 wins and 74 loses, commanded by the wonderkid Jared McCombs (8.9 WAR) on offense, an elite defensive core and one of the most promising pitching staffs in the league, there were high hopes in Chicago for 1980.

Sadly for them, changes in park factors and a decline in offensive performances, McCombs included, heavily affected their run production. From 741 runs scored in 1979 to 616 runs scored in 1980, with winning percentage plummeting accordingly... the team finished under .500 for the 12th time in 13 years.

But sometimes you have to take a step back (and maybe a few side steps) to move forward.

Run prevention stays at the top of Cubs priorities and players like Tony Nava (3.1 WAR) and Alvaro Dominguez (2.9 WAR) remain centerpieces of their strategy.

An already great staff (4th starters' ERA in NL) improved unexpectedly with Joel Scott (2.35 ERA as reliever in 23 IP) adding an elite changeup to his repertoire, but he suffered a severe injury and will not be available for the season.

Another important piece of the rotation, Charles Ashley (2.7 WAR), suffered an elbow injury in July of last year and is not expected to pitch until May.

On the offensive side McCombs will continue running the show. Aiding him will be 1B Lorenzo Espinoza, OF Salvatore Dones, OF Ken Goldsmith and two new faces, high OBP outfielders Justin Robertson (.384) and Bill Shannon (.353). Shannon played a good first half of the season last year for the Cubs, was traded to the Reds and returned as a free agent.

In regard to prospects, Tony Acosta (#25) is now the second most popular Tony in Chicago as he was acquired from the Yankees in exchange for Alex Gonzalez. Acosta is projected to have an elite bat and has crushed every level of the minors he touched. He's expected to reach the majors next season.

A few new faces have arrived, although no big moves to immediately challenge the Cardinals and Reds for the division. The big bear is hibernating, getting bigger while waiting for winter to end; he'll come out eventually and things will get really interesting in the NLC.

Cincinnati Reds

Added: P J. Suggs (5.0 WAR), 1B C. Negrete (4.2 WAR), LF N. Harvey (3.5 WAR), C C. Urban (3.1 WAR), CF M. Weir (2.3 WAR),P K. Ogura (2.2 WAR), LF M. Angell (-0.2 WAR), RF P. Tatcher (-0.2 WAR), P J. Green (AAA), P J. Stump (AAA), 2B J. Knapp, 3B M. Hilyer (AAA), P R. Teran (AA), 2B B. Van Cleave (A), P H. Flores (R), P B. Gang (R), 3B E. Preciado (R)

Lost: P D. Nixon (5.2 WAR), 1B J. Block (2.1 WAR), LF Q. Freiman (2.1 WAR), LF B. Shannon (0.1 WAR), RF J.P. Sheldon (1.4 WAR), P E. Craig (0.4 WAR), P D. Ledezma (A), 2B J. Tolland (A), 3B J. Salazar (A-), P A. Babin (R), P D. Bradley (R), P P. Dunn (R), P J. Piedrahita (R), P C. Robertson (R), P B. Weathersby (R), C M. Stone (R), 2B M. Moffet (R), 3B T. Davis (R), SS D. Perez (R), LF L. Lopez (R), CF F. Ulrich (R), CF J. Fuentes (INT), LF L. Lopez (R), RF L. Canales (INT) 1980 was a typical year for the Cincinnati Reds, they ended as the top team in the National League and out of the playoffs before the World Series. 👖 And this year the same is expected (maybe not the early playoff elimination) since the core of future HoFers and top quality players that made Cincinnati one of the top franchises in the league remains intact.

Hyperactive as usual Reds' GM Anthony Caterini made scams trades left and right, he even flipped furniture! (It's true)

Let's review some of the most important trades for them:

The first blockbuster of the season for the Reds came with the addition of 1B Carlos Negrete (3.8 WAR last season). Multiple players covered the position in the last few years, Luis Andaverde, Raul Guzman and John Block (traded away in this deal) all had good performances for the Reds but more is expected from Negrete, an All-Star and Gold Glove winner in '79 that made the jump from the inferior American League to the National League after 4 years in Baltimore.

The second big trade of the offseason in Cincinnati, and maybe the most important, was the addition of Mike Hilyer, a well regarded top 100 prospect from Atlanta with a cannon for an arm, a lot of power and good plate discipline. Hilyer is expected to cover the hot corner for the Reds this season and the years to come. Considering his promising start for the Braves, 0.8 WAR in 50 PA, he's a serious contender for Rookie of the Year.

But to get something good you have to give something good (most of the time) and in this case Dave Nixon (4.5 WAR as 5th starter for the Reds last year) and a pack of prospects was the price to pay for a quality prospect like Hilyer.

To cover the spot left by Nixon, the Reds added two experienced pitchers to their staff: Joel Suggs (5.0 WAR) and Kiyoteru Ogura (2.8 WAR). Two cheap trades, especially Suggs who finished as ERA leader last season but injuries raised alarms in San Francisco and resulted in him being sent away to a historical rival.

Other important additions, in this case for the outfield, are LF Nick Harvey and LF Micah Angell, both very well suited to hit homers in lefties heaven Riverfront Stadium.

Harvey came from the White Sox, where he hit 17 and 16 homers in the last two seasons, in exchange for Quinn Freiman (2.1 WAR) and two other players. He's expected to be the starter LF this season while Angell finishes his development in AAA.

We don't know how the pieces of the puzzle will fit or if this are even the final pieces... what we do know is that Pugh and Dunn will continue to strike out batters like no one, we know that Perez and Guitierrez will continue to play an elite defense while batting like first basemen, we know that Karr and Woodward will be at the top of the batting leaderboards, and we know that the Cincinnati Reds will win games... a lot of games.

Houston Astros

Added: 2B T. DeChant (0.9 WAR), C A. Munoz (0.5 WAR), P B. Murphy (0.0 WAR), P E. Suarez (AAA), 3B S. Baters (AAA), P J. Gauvin (AA), 2B F. Rodriguez (AA), CF R. Gaitan (AA), 2B J. Tolland (A), P M. Kruithof (A-), P P. Dunn (R), 3B E. Raphael (R) Lost: P V. Dahl (4.3 WAR), P W. Miller (1.5 WAR), P S. Stokes (0.8 WAR), 1B S. Miyahara (0.7 WAR), RF B. Schultz (0.3 WAR), P A. Gogo (0.2 WAR), C T. Hutzinger (-0.3 WAR), P B. McGlynn (-0.3 WAR), LF G. Hernandez (-0.9 WAR), SS I. Chavez (AAA), (R), 2B E. Ivory (R), P O. Gavazzo (INT) Houston only finished above .500 in 2 of the last 18 years and they never qualified for the playoffs, but that will not last long... They are one of the youngest teams in the league with plenty of talent in their roster and in their minors.

The Astros finished 1980 with 74 wins, 11 more than a year before, although according to baseruns only 3 wins above the '79 expected wins with 67 (.416). That looks like the floor for a team still in development whose better years are still to come.

Catcher Matt Leroy (22 y.o.), All-Star last season, will be the young leader of the team once again. Alongside him are a group of promising young players: 1B Brandon Wright (22), 3B Shawn Bates (25), SS Justin Williams (25), OF Eduardo Mendoza (21) and OF Chris Johnson (22) to name a few. There's plenty of talent here and only time will be needed to grow them into real major league players capable of producing the first playoff team in Houston history.

A notable transfer in the offseason was the departure of Viggo Dahl (4.3 WAR) to Boston. Dahl was a solid piece in the rotation for the last 2 years but the return was more than fair and the Astros rotation won't miss him much considering the pitching talent available; Glinski, Clark, Jaffe and Green would be a rotation that almost every team would want as their own.

Like the Cubs (good), Houston is in the process of becoming something more than a team constantly under .500, only a few seasons and more time in the oven separates this team from contention.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Added: LF G. Yeary (2.7 WAR), M. de Alba (1.9 WAR), RF M. Fellows (0.3 WAR), J. Jones (0.0 WAR), 1B V. Monts (AA), P S. Ainsley (A), 3B O. Tibbs (A), P S. Duncan (A-), P J. Schulz (A-), P J. Brown (R), P J. Diaz (R), P V. Martinez (R), P B. Weathersby (R) Lost: CF E. Salazar (5.4 WAR), LF X. Lum (5.4 WAR), P G. Luzzi (4.9 WAR), P L. Abramowski (3.3 WAR), P J. Albanese (1.6 WAR), P C. Abbruzzese (0.5 WAR), P M. Morgan (0.3 WAR), LF M. Doucet (0.0 WAR), P A. Byer (-0.2 WAR), LF E. Jenner (AAA), RF T. Sierra (R) After 3 years with over 95 wins and one playoff appearance the Pirates said enough and started a rebuild process. NLC is tough...

Eddie Salazar (38.2 WAR in 7 seasons) and Xi-Wang Lum (10.1 WAR in 3 seasons) were traded to the Detroit Tigers in the biggest trade of the offseason. In return, the Pirates received a group of interesting pitching prospects and LF Gary Yeary (2.5 WAR in 88 games for the Tigers).

Haun was traded in the middle of the season, and in the offseason it also was time for Luzzi (4.9 WAR), Abramowski (3.3 WAR), Albanese (1.6 WAR) and Abbruzzese (0.5 WAR) to say goodbye.

The Pirates ended the offseason with a boosted minor league system and a much younger team, and although they still have elite players like 1B Adam McGahee (18 WAR in the last 3 seasons), it will take some time until they regain their status as a top team.

St. Louis Cardinals

Added: LF S. Herrera (1.7 WAR), C J. Brewer (1.0 WAR), 3B A. Brands (-0.1 WAR), P J. Gilchrist (A), P D. Bradley (R), P P. Cruz (R), P J. Piedrahita (R), P C. Robertson (R), P N. Spann (R), C M. Stone (R), 3B T. Davis (R), RF L. Canales (INT) Lost: C S. Gomez (1.0 WAR), P A. Fincher (0.7 WAR), P E. Poindexter (0.3 WAR), LF M. Angell (-0.2 WAR), P J. Green (AAA), P M. Martire (AAA), SS T. Rose (AAA), LF B. Regimbal (AAA), CF A. Hernandez (AAA), 1B T. Filo (A), RF S. Elrod (A-), CF G. Cooper (A-)

"A-well-a don't you know about the bird? Well, everybody knows that the bird is the word!" Justin Peter Löwenbräu Griffin

"If it ain't broken, don't fix it" was the motto for the Cards this offseason after 108 wins last year.

The heart of the beast continues to be the bullpen with Jorge Gonzalez (2.40 ERA in 161 IP) as their poster boy, along him the three other horses of the apocalypse: Steven Nelson (2.73 ERA in 149 IP), Aaron "Madman" Daniels (2.03 ERA in 97.1 IP) and Bryan Leek (2.69 ERA in 90.1 IP).

Starting the games will be the usual 4-man rotation with all Cardinals drafted players: K-Rod (3.3 WAR), Jay Field (5.2 WAR), Jeremiah Stubs (2.5 WAR) and Rich Ludington (0.8 WAR).

Offensively nothing has changed for the most part... 1B Brent Wagner (158 OPS+), OF Ron Anderson (150 OPS+), 3B Bill Underwood (148 OPS+) and CF Justin Johnson (142 OPS+) are the big threats in the lineup. Fighting for time in the outfield will be OF Gerry Buckby (102 OPS+) and the new addition OF Shane Herrera (111 OPS+). And to complement them defensive oriented players like SS Garrett Myron (+22.9 ZR) and 2B Roger MacNeill (+21.3 ZR) and platoon players like IF Aaron Brands and RF Lorenzo Silva.

The Cardinals remain a very threatening team in the NLC and figure to again be in the mix for the division crown, or a wildcard berth at minimum.

My Predictions

Chicago Cubs: 83 wins
Cincinnati Reds: 105 wins
Houston Astros: 79 wins
Pittsburgh Pirates: 69 wins
St. Louis Cardinals: 100 wins