1981 NLE Preview

1980 NLE Standings

Atlanta Braves 91-71 (Lost NLDS 3-1)

Philadelphia Phillies 89-73

Montreal Expos 80-82

Florida Marlins 63-99

New York Mets 55-107

Atlanta Braves

91-71 (Lost NLDS 3-1)

For the second year in a row, the Braves won the NL East only to lose in the NLDS. However, even though they ended up in the same place the Braves had a down year from 1979 when they finished 105-58. In 1980, park factor changes and disappointing years from some hitters resulted in an across-the-board offensive regression. The Braves still had strong run production but combined with middling pitching and below-average defense meant that the Braves won 14 fewer games in 1980 than they had in 79.

The offseason saw the departure of starters 1B Ricky Robles (2.7 WAR in 1980) and SP Spencer Perkins (2.0 WAR) who were both lost to free agency; furthermore SP Michel de Alba (1.6 WAR) who was traded to Cincinnati and LF Shane Herrera (2.0 WAR) was traded to St. Louis.

The Braves seem to have lost one final starter in another fashion: CF Joe Garrard, who had an incredibly disappointing year in 1980 with -0.1 WAR (after accumulating 5.8 WAR in 1979, 5.1 in 1978, and 4.0 in 1977), has been demoted in favor of the newly acquired rookie Andy Hernandez (acquired via trade from St. Louis). Replacing Robles at first base will be his former platoon partner at that position Jason Shirinian who earned 2.3 WAR in 87 starts and 435 plate appearances in 1980. Also stepping out of a platoon role into a full time starting position will be OF Taylor Faulkner, he will fill the hole left by the departing Herrera. Faulker played for the Tigers, the Pirates, and the Braves in 1980 and racked up a total of 3.5 WAR. Starting pitchers de Alba and Perkins will be replaced by Dave Nixon (4.5 WAR in 1980 with the Reds) and Kyle Suchecki (acquired near the end of 1980 in a trade with Pittsburgh; he had a total of 4.5 WAR in 1980).

The Braves have two notable callups: OF power-hitter Abe Conti (3.4 WAR in AA in 1980) and SS David Velasquez (0.8 WAR in AAA in 1980). Neither youngster has a clear path to a starting role, but both look to help their teams from the bench. In an effort to improve their bullpen the Braves snagged their division rival's longtime closer David Teter (3.9 WAR in 1980 and owner of 4 Reliever of the Year awards including the award for 1980). Finally for roster moves, the Braves did not make much noise in free agency acquiring only left-handed reliever Brian Noah (0.2 WAR in 1980 with the Padres).

To succeed in the coming season, the Braves will need to return to their 1979 hitting form; though this seems unlikely due to the reduced generosity of park factors - but the Braves can still hope that a few players step up more than they did in 1980 especially 1979 NL MVP Matt Singer who netted 3.6 WAR, down from 9.5 the year before. If the Braves cannot return to hitting dominance they will need to find a way to make up for it with pitching or defense. It is likely that pitching is the better hope of the two as Dave Nixon, Kyle Suchecki, and David Teter combined for 12.9 WAR in 1980 for (mostly) other teams. Defense, on the other hand, has long been a rough spot for Atlanta and the offseason has seen only mild improvements here - CF Andy Hernandez is the only new starter who should be a clear defensive upgrade.

Philadelphia Phillies

89-73

The Phillies surged last season ending the campaign only two games below the Braves and capping off a fantastic three-year turnaround where they improved from a .346 winning percentage in 1978 to a .549 winning percentage in 1980. The Phillies have had a very interesting offseason, losing 19.4 WAR from their 1980 roster but making other moves which signal a clear intent to compete this season.

The major Phillies departures were CF John Irving (2.3 WAR in 1980), C Kellen Anis (3.3 WAR), 3B Brian Johnson (3.7 WAR), SP Richard Bransetter (3.7 WAR), 2B Jerry Fix (1.3 WAR), SP Roberto Ibarra (2.1 WAR), and RF Casey Limoli (1.1 WAR); all were lost to free agency leaving some major holes to patch. The only established player added who had any WAR to speak of in 1980 is SP Chris Baca who signed a 5 year, $3 million deal with the Phillies in the offseason. Baca accumulated 2.5 WAR with the Indians in 1980.

This leaves the Phils with holes to fill at some important positions: CF, C, 2B, 3B, and another starting pitcher. We'll take those position by position to see how Philadelphia looks to recover from their free agency losses.

CF: Russ Franklin had 3.6 WAR for the Phillies in 1979, but had a down year in 1980 with only 1 WAR. However, he also had some injury problems that limited his playing time. He may be joined in centerfield by youngster Marshall Jackson who had 5.7 WAR across A and AA ball in 1980. This hole will be patched if Russ Franklin can equal his 1979 stats and Marshall Jackson can realize his potential.

C: Kellen Anis continued his journeyman career by moving to the world champion Yankees in the offseason. The Phillies look to replace him with younger, cheaper options. The Phils obtained Travis Huntzinger in a November, 1980 trade with the Astros. Huntzinger, however, only accumulated 0.1 WAR in two seasons with Houston and recently tore his hamstring which will wreck his ability to prepare with the team in spring training. Philadelphia also acquired catcher Johnny Carpenter via free agency. Carpenter has spent the last two season in AAA where he gained a total of 1.3 WAR. Clearly Huntzinger is the main hope for the Phils here, but to replace Anis he will need to quickly recover from his injury and do better than he did in his two years with the Astros.

3B: After earning 5.0 WAR in 1979 and 3.7 WAR in 1980 with the Phils, Brian Johnson signed a one-year deal worth $420,069 with the Rockies. Hoping to replace him will be Alex Vera who got called up in 1979 and backed up Johnson last season. Though, even as a backup Vera still put together a 1.8 WAR season and a 128 OPS+. If Vera can play the position full time with that same success he should be an adequate, and much cheaper, replacement for Johnson.

SP: The Phils lost 5.8 WAR worth of starting pitching with the departures of Bransetter and Ibarra in free agency. They got 2.5 WAR back by signing SP Chris Baca. Where will they find the other 3.3 WAR to round out the rotation? The two competitors for this spot on the Spring Training roster are Alfonso Rivera who had 2.8 WAR in AA last season and John Blades who saw action across AA, AAA, and the majors in 1980. Clearly the Phils hope to go with Blades who in his first 6 games in the majors posted a 219 ERA+. The only question is, will those 15.2 innings correctly predict an entire season of success?

With the holes potentially patched, we can take a look at the rest of the team. The brightest pitching spot is certainly youngster Aaron Crawley who has 6.0 WAR total over the last two season. The Phils' bats are led by stars Chase Notch (5.6 WAR in 1980), RF/1B Dylan Duncan (4.7 WAR), and LF Andy Bender (5.1 WAR). If these three can match or improve upon past performances the Phillies can expect to be competitive at bat in 1981.

A more worrying sight is Philadelphia's bullpen. Justin Moody (0.7 WAR in 1980) and Rich Peled (1.3 WAR) are bright spots here. They will be joined by promising youngster Tomas Quintero who posted an even 100 ERA+ in a full season in 1980 with the Phils, gaining 0.2 WAR in the process. Rounding out the pen is free agent acquisition Gavin Wentworth who spent 1980 in AAA with the Red Sox organization. Also acquired in free agency was Jeremy Woelfel who had -0.5 WAR in 34.2 innings with the Rockies in 1980 (though perhaps he can be forgiven a bit as Coors Field is not pitcher friendly). Justin Nickens remains with the Phillies after getting exactly 0 WAR in 79.1 innings in 1980. Finally there is Brian Maltby who was gained through the Rule 5 draft but recently tore a tendon in his elbow which will keep him out for the season. Certainly there is some talent in this bullpen with Moody, Peled, and Quintero - but those three cannot pitch all the relief innings that the Phils will need this season. Can the other RPs step up?

Montreal Expos

80-82

A perennial contender for many years, the Expos finished outside the top two spots in the NLE for the first time in several years in 1980. After letting long-time but aging superstar Hideo Tanaka (2.2 WAR in 1980) go in free agency (though he remains unsigned and could return to the team) and trading away 1980 reliever of the year David Teter (3.9 WAR) to the division rival Braves, it seems clear that the Expos are about to embark on a rebuilding project.

Other notable departures are SP Dave Esposito (1.1 WAR in 1980), SP Cody Strunk (3.6 WAR), and 2B Kevin Wickham (3.8 WAR) all who were lost to free agency. The Expos did very little to replace these losses as the only offseason additions were two players taken in the Rule 5 draft and two prospects acquired in the Teter trade with Atlanta.

However, don't be fooled by these roster moves as Montreal still has some talent remaining on their RLB roster including some future star pitchers. Chief among these young talents are 24 year-old Alex Midence who rode a 139 ERA+ to 5.5 WAR in 1980 and 22 year-old John Schill who put up a 134 ERA+ for 3.5 WAR. Joining them this year after limited RLB time in 1980 is 23 year-old Dale Overton who looks to be Montreal's choice to replace former closer David Teter. Other notable talents on the roster are 1975 MVP Travis Pinkard (4.7 WAR), CF/RF Martin Weir (2.3 WAR), and 3B Ivan Rodriguez (5.0 WAR). With this much talent remaining on the field it's unlikely that Montreal will fall below third place in 1981.

Looking towards the future, Montreal has the 15th ranked prospect CF Alan Gatto in AAA to start the season and the 13th highest ranked farm system in the league.

Florida Marlins

63-99

The Marlins put up a .389 winning percentage in 1980, but this was a marked improvement from their .265 showing in 1979. Are the Marlins due to make a jump in 1981?

The Marlins made the fewest offseason moves of any RLB team, obtaining only two players (both via Rule 5 draft) and losing just three. The only notable departure was RF Marco Gonzales who had 2.5 WAR for the Marlins in 1980.

So what to look forward to this season for Florida? Young players. Former/current top 100 prospects CF Logan Hinkle and RF Nate LeCompte are already with the team while 4th ranked prospect CF Nate Banister, 16th ranked 2B Bobby Vazquez, 22nd ranked 1B Jesus Sanchez have joined the team (perhaps temporarily) for spring training. Overall, the team boasts the third overall top farm system. For yet another season, Florida will be looking to compete in the future rather than immediately. Though if the young stars play well the team might compete with the Expos for third place.

New York Mets

55-107

The Mets tore down their team before starting the 1980 season and the resulting .340 winning percentage and third overall draft pick show it.

During the offseason the Mets lost backup catcher Josh Brewer (1.2 WAR in 1980), LF Kareem Dotson (1.3 WAR), and SP Ruben Quiroga (2.1 WAR).

Replacing these departures are third overall prospect SP Dennis Kane who had 4.7 WAR in AAA in 1980 and gave up only one earned run in two RLB starts at the tail end of the season. Joining Kane on the Mets during spring training is the 30th ranked prospect RF Heriberto Trevino who also had a 1980 callup and proceeded to put up a 166 OPS+ and 0.6 WAR in his first 55 RLB plate appearances.

Kane and Trevino, talented as they are, are unlikely to boost the Mets from the NLE basement. But, New York also has the 5th overall farm system and will be looking to add to it in the upcoming draft.