1986 NL Rookie of the Year Candidates

Is predicting which RLB rookie will have the best season extremely difficult, or is the author of these predictions just very bad at forecasting? Most will probably think the latter. This is the fourth season that I have done some sort of predictions at RotY. Seventeen players have made the final list over the previous three editions, and all have fallen short of winning the trophy, some by a wide margin. Here are the players that have been mentioned in previous years and their WAR totals for that season:

The actual winners were Jesse Duch in 1983 with 5.3 WAR, Adam Vance in 1984 with 5.6 WAR, and Nick Chambers in 1985 with 5.3 WAR.

Maybe 1986 will bring better luck, if not my apologies go out to all the following players and their respective teams.

1B Mike Hastings – Atlanta Braves

Hastings came over to the Braves this off-season in a trade with the Detroit Tigers in return for a package of six prospects. The first baseman was drafted 26th overall by the Tigers in 1982 and has steadily progressed to become the 7th ranked prospect in RLB. In his most recent stint in AAA with the Tigers organization, he slashed .311/.384/.543, slugged 28 HR and put up 5.6 WAR in just 129 games. Originally a third baseman, Hastings will also give the Braves a more than solid defensive option at first base. His power is still developing, but the friendly confines of Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium should help to provide him with some big power numbers in his rookie campaign.

DH Akichika Okano – Colorado Rockies

Okano is by far the oldest rookie included at 32 years old. Coming over to RLB as an International Free Agent, he signed with the Rockies on January 1st. He will make $12 million over the next eight years for the Colorado organization and while the length of the deal may bring some risk in later seasons, Okano does have to option to opt out of his contract after the 1988 season. His power is immense, and also possesses an above average contact bat as well. He has already flashed his power potential in Spring Training, hitting 7 HR in his warm-up for 1986. A perfect recipe for playing his home games at Coors Field. If needed to play the field he would fare the best in either left field or at first base. Even if he never puts on a glove this season, Okano will have a big impact at the plate for the Rockies.

SP Yi-Lin Rui – Montreal Expos

The second of two International Free Agents on this list, the 23-year-old pitcher out of Taiwan became the third highest paid player in RLB with one swoop of his pen. The Expos won the bidding war, signing him to a 10 year, $28,960,00 contract on December 30th. The right-hander throws four above average pitches and can touch 96 MPH on the radar. In five Spring Training starts, Rui posted a 3.66 ERA and a 17:8 K:BB ratio. Even with room to develop in all facets of his game, Rui is more than ready to be slotted into the Expos rotation. Reports out of camp state that he will be used as the #5 starter to begin the season, but everyone across the league expects him to outpace back of the rotation expectations.

SP James Salas – Cincinnati Reds

Salas was drafted in 1982, slipping all the way to the 6th round before being selected 171st overall by the Cincinnati Reds. While not a blue chip prospect coming out of high school, the lefty has developed into a starting pitcher that should be at least league average in every part of his game. His three-pitch repertoire is featured by a filthy slider; the only downside is that right handed hitters fare better against such a pitch. Salas relies more on the movement of his pitches than velocity, only topping out in the high 80s on the radar. He has been a late bloomer, putting up less than impressive numbers in A ball and below. Since being promoted to AA in 1985 however, Salas accumulated a stellar 194:46 K:BB ratio between AA and AAA. The Reds plan on giving him a chance at the RLB level to start the season, and hope that Salas can continue his new found success when the regular season begins.