First Round Draft Analysis compared to “The Index” “The Index” Takes All Facets of the player’s potential into account and creates an indexed score for Catching, Infield, Outfield and Hitting. The highest of Catching, Infield and Outfield scores gets taken to determine the Fielding Score. The Fielding Score and the Hitting Score are then factored together to create the Overall Index Score used to compare all players. Due to the algorithm, First Basemen and Designated Hitters are discounted because of their lack of defensive value and their pure Hitting Index Ranking will be considered (this most likely leads to the error of undervaluing these players).
Pitchers are Indexed similarly, taking their potential stuff, movement, and control into account, although there is no crossover to rate them against Hitters (Yet!) or a good way to differentiate SP’s and RP’s. So, for the purposes of this article the current rating of pitchers is at the writer’s discretion (mainly via asking the Mets Scout).
One caveat is that the data used in The Index is from the New York Mets Scout, who is Excellent at scouting Amateurs and Favors Tools and has at least High or Very High Scouting on these players.
1.1 Los Angeles Dodgers - LF Jim Balliett: A+
A clear upgrade over Luke Heath, the current LF in the Dodgers Minor League System, Jim Balliett is easily the #1 overall pick of the draft and the Dodgers hit this one right on the money. With 85 Contact, and 70 power you might think that Balliett just swings away at everything, but he has a very complementary eye (85 potential) to round out his hit tool. He is a pure batter who will wait for his pitch and crush it but won’t get frazzled if he is down in the count. The Index agrees that he is by far the #1 pick of this draft.
1.2 Minnesota Twins - RF Brian Clark: A-
The 80 contact paired with 80 power is huge. Brian Clark will become one of if not the best sluggers of the draft and a decent corner outfielder. The Index had rated Clark as the #5 Player.
1.3 Texas Rangers - P Walt Hooper: A+
The best SP in this draft by far. 6 Pitches, all above a 55 rating right now and room to grow and 65/65/65 potentials in his Stu/Mov/Ctrl, Hooper will be Pitcher of the Year one day. There is a good argument that he should have gone #1 Overall.
1.4 Philadelphia Phillies - RF Jon Girolami: B+
Jon Girolami provides a good balance of Hitting Ability with good Defense in LF/RF. He is almost RLB Ready and will slot into Philadelphia’s starting lineup in the near future. The Index rates Girolami as the #13 ranked player.
1.5 Arizona Diamondbacks - CF Jason Porter: A-
Jason "Terror" Porter will be a phenomenal corner outfielder for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and projects to be slightly above average in Center. The scary combination of 65 potential contact with an 85 graded eye will means that he can practically get on base at will. Jason Porter was picked slightly early according to The Index, which graded him as the #6 Hitter/Field player.
1.6 Oakland Athletics - 1B Paul Ownby: C+
Ownby is young and raw but if the scouts are accurate, he will be a perennial winner of the Home Run Derby and a recurring sight in the All-Star Game thanks to his bat. He is a bit of a reach as The Index graded him as #48 due to his lack of fielding value. Ownby is the 11th best Hitter on The Index.
1.7 Detroit Tigers - C Chris Seferovic: B
Chris Seferovic was held back a year in middle school, an 18-year-old HS Junior grades out as average catcher behind the plate, but his bat will carry him to elite status. As he develops, his 80 contact, 65 gap and 70 power potential will ensure he crushes the ball every time he takes a swing. He is the highest ranked Catcher on The Index, which has him rated as the #21 prospect in this draft. Seferovic shows signs of being a young Garrett Coward.
1.8 Florida Marlins – 3B Chris Layden: D+
Possibly one of the biggest question marks in this draft according to The Index, Chris Layden has already developed above average power (55/65) and a decent eye (45/55). The 20 y/o Third Baseman looks to be more of a 1B at best, with an average arm and 55 range. He can fit the position at 3rd but not long term. The Index has Layden rated as the #222 overall player.
1.9 Houston Astros –SS Ryan Salzman: B+
According to The Index, Ryan Salzman is certainly 1st Round Talent. He comes in at #18 on the list. There may be a few better players available here but, Salzman shows signs of being an elite infielder with 65 Range, 55 Arm and 60 Turn DP. While his bat may not be the best, his potential of a 90 Eye with 60 Gap and 60 HR Power will lead to a very solid career in RLB.
1.10 Montreal Expos - CF Mike Matthias: A
A highly rated outfielder with a decent hit tool. Mike Matthias is the quintessential Center Fielder, 70 OF Range, 65 OF Error, and 60 OF Arm. Pair that with 70 Contact, 65 Eye and 60 Avoid Ks, opposing pitchers will have a tough time keeping him off the basepaths. A value pick here at #10 Overall, he was ranked #2 on The Index.
1.11 New York Yankees – P Steve Tomlinson: B-
Steve Tomlinson is a 22 year old LHP with a plethora of pitches. A fully developed 65 Changeup is the prime pitch that Steve throws, He also has a plus sinker with potential for a plus slider, curveball, and fastball. With 60/65 movement, Tomlinson has the stuff to complement his pitch set and should earn a spot in the middle to top of the Rotation. A little bit of development is needed on the control but expect to see Steve on the RLB Roster soon.
1.12 Washington Senators – 2B Bennett Lancaster: B
With a solid complement of defensive ratings Bennett Lancaster should be a good addition to the Senators middle infield at Second Base. The Index ranks him at #31, falling just outside of the 1st round on paper but with his Leadership ability and being a well-rounded player, he fits the bill for what Washington is looking for. Boasting a near .500 OBP in his final year of College, Lancaster will seem like he is always on base. A 70 rated eye and a 65 avoid Ks will more than make up for his slightly above average contact and average power. He may not be the flashiest player in this draft, but as Peter Brand says – we like him because, He. Gets. On. Base.
1.13 Kansas City Royals – P Nolan Rodelo: A+
A Left Handed Pitcher from the Big Apple, Nolan Rodelo has 3 plus-plus pitches – A Fastball, Curveball and Changeup, all rated 65 coming out of college. A little development needs to be done with his basic pitching ability, but being a hard worker, he should have no problem meeting or exceeding his potential. In a league short on pitching prospects in general and the fact that he is a lefty, Nolan will be competing to be in the top half of the Royals rotation in no time. Being a more developed prospect, and having a high ceiling on his control, Nolan was the #2 Starting Pitcher on this writer’s board.
1.14 Cincinnati Reds – RF Miguel Mendoza: B+
With high Leadership and Loyalty, the Cincinnati Reds have selected a long term leader for their clubhouse. With average OF Range and OF Error, and a plus OF Arm Mendoza will fit well into a Corner Outfield position. Since January when he came onto the draft radar, his eye and power has developed to be slightly above average, with plenty of potential to become elite. Mendoza will need to develop his contact over his time in the Minor Leagues but should become a foundational piece of the Reds organization of the future. A solid pick compared to The Index’s rating of #24.
1.15 Boston Red Sox – LF Chris Bush: A+
The Boston Red Sox may very well have just gotten the biggest steal of the entire draft. We are a bit surprised that Chris Bush Fell all the way to #15 when he is #4 on The Index and graded as the #2 Bat in this draft. He has a very similar grade to that of our #1 overall pick Jim Balliett. With 80 contact and 75 home run power and 65 eye potential Bush should be one of the best players of his era and make multiple trips to the All Star game. He is primarily a Left Fielder but can play Right Field in a pinch. As a durable player, if he can achieve his potential, Chris Bush will have a very lucrative career.
1.16 San Diego Padres – 1B Eric Dixon: B-
Standing at 6’5”, Eric Dixon has the predisposition to play 1B, but his current ratings only grade him as an average 1B. Thankfully his speed and his batting make him a contender for at least a DH role on an RLB Roster. With 80 Contact, 75 Gap Power and 65 Eye Potentials, Dixon should be able to hit alongside the best of them. Only 17 years old, “Sparky” will have some time to develop before we see him in the bigs. The Index says that this pick is a little bit of a reach rating Dixon at #51 overall, but as just a bat he is the 6th best in the draft.
1.17 Seattle Mariners – 1B Cole McDaniel: C-
Cole McDaniel is similar to Eric Dixon, but his speed and defensive stature does not compare. With 80 Contact and 65 Home Run Power, as well as 65 Eye Potentials McDaniel is the 5th best hitter in this draft. His lack of defense means that he will most likely become a DH but he can be used at 1st in a pinch. Cole McDaniel is ranked #126 on The Index, but he will become an exciting player for the Mariners due to his Hitting Prowess if he reaches his potential.
1.18 New York Mets – LF Edwardo Sandoval: A+
It was almost unfathomable that Edwardo fell this far, The Index has him rated as the #4 hitter in the 1993 draft and ranked as the #3 overall hitter. He sports serviceable stats for LF, and might have an outside chance of being decent in RF. While being so young, he is certainly a development risk with only having 25 contact in High School. He does have an impressively high ceiling with 65 Contact, 75 Gap Power, 80 HR Power and 65 Eye. Other than his contact he is well over 65% developed in his other areas. If he can overcome his mental and physical limitations to reach his potential he could prove to be a good asset for the Mets.
1.19 Chicago White Sox – SS Jerry Byrd: A
One of the Elite Middle Infielders of this draft, Jerry Byrd will bring phenomenal defense to the Chicago White Sox for years to come. Seeing as Byrd has less than average contact potential, it dragged his stock down a bit. That being said, he projects to have the power to blast the ball halfway to I-90! 75 power potential and 75 eye potential is close to one of the best pairings in this draft, but he will strike out quite a bit. The Index ranked Byrd as the #11 overall player in this draft.
1.20 California Angels – RF Brendan Forsee: B-
With the 20th pick, the Angels select Brendan Forsee. A First Baseman out of Akron, OH has a solid bat as well as the athleticism to transition to Left or Right Field. Brendan is almost fully developed with about 15% more to go in his batting skill. Once he maxes out his Contact, Power and Eye he will be a nightmare for most pitchers. He has phenomenal patience at the plate, and will draw plenty of walks. The Index rates him as the 49th player in the Draft. This pick is a little bit early but with the 21 year old’s current development he should be seen in RLB within the next few years.
1.21 Toronto Blue Jays – RF Mike Glessner: A
The Toronto Blue Jays received an A for their pick of Mike Glessner, the #16 overall on The Index. While still a little raw, the High School Jr already has the markings of the next great Left Fielder. His Gap Power, Home Run Power and Eye have all had some development which puts him ahead of his peers. The big question mark for Glessner is whether his 80 potential contact and 60 potential Avoid K’s will develop completely. Toronto is a good fit for him as they have been able to develop many Outfielders in recent years.
1.22 San Francisco Giants – 1B Tom Petrucci: C+
Tom Petrucci coming in at 6’, 185 lbs will be a top tier RLB Designated Hitter unless he can develop his fielding abilities. Already ringing up 65/70 Home Run Power, and hitting 17+ Home Runs a year in HS will translate well to the Bigs. With 40/70 Contact and 40/60 Gap Power, Petrucci will do well for the Giants. His lack of Defensive prowess places Petrucci as the #230 rated player, but he is the 17th best hitter in the draft.
1.23 Chicago Cubs – 1B Joe Schulte: D
One of the youngest players in the Draft was taken by the Cubs at #23, but this is one of the more curious picks. Joe Schulte has all the markings of a Designated Hitter. Although he is 6’ 4” and 200 lbs, Joe has very poor defensive ratings and tops out as a below average First Baseman. The allure of this player lies purely in his 60/75 Home Run Power and 50/75 Eye. He is rated as the 80th overall hitter (and the 821st overall player). Due to his average contact potential and below average Avoid K’s. His At-Bats will result in one of 3 options, a Home Run, a Walk, or more often than not a Strikeout.
1.24 St. Louis Cardinals – LF Adam Guess: A-
Adam is one of the best remaining players at this point of the Draft. The Index rated him as the 25th overall player. While still developing, he projects to be an average LF/RF with a great hit tool that could catapult him to multiple All-Star Appearances. While not a pure power hitter, Guess will be a top contributor to his team.
1.25 Pittsburgh Pirates – LF Rocky Dobin: B-
Barely a Left Fielder, Dobin will most likely fall into the role of Designated Hitter for the Pirates. Being the 14th best hitter on The Index (but the 50th overall player), Dobin provides a lot of value being selected with the 25th overall pick. The combination of plus-plus Contact, Home Run Power and an elite Eye will make him a big threat at the plate. He has just enough Gap and Avoid K’s potential to be able to boast a good average and a respectable strikeout percentage.
1.26 Baltimore Orioles – RF Larry Gruenwald: A+
The Orioles managed to snag The Index’s 8th best player in this draft. With a misleading nickname “Dum-Dum” is a very adaptable player with a high work ethic who will play any outfield position with ease. A plus plus arm and plus range will contribute well to his defensive ability. While he may not be crushing home runs every game, he will sport a very impressive OBP and a high Average. Gruenwald also has quite a bit of speed which will contribute to all aspects of his game. His lack of Home Run Power is most likely why he fell down to the back end of the first round.
1.27 Milwaukee Brewers – CF Chris Harkness: A+
Another great selection here at #15, Chris Harkenss won't quite be a Center Fielder in RLB, but he can play the position in a pinch. He will excel at Right or Left Field with 60 Range and 55 Arm. His innate speed, plus-plus Contact and Gap Power will lead to an above average amount of extra base hits. In addition, with his average power, he should be able to produce 20+ HRs a year. Harkness has a very promising future.
1.28 Cleveland Spiders – 1B Jonathan Belville: C+
Jonathan Belville caps off the last of the First Basemen selected in the first round who don't quite fit the bill defensively but have a great bat. Just how good is Belville’s bat? The Index rates it as the 9th best this year in the amateur draft. While still very early in his development, if Belville reaches his full potential of 70/35/70/75/50, he will be a powerful slugger who has the patience to wait for his pitch. His lack of defense keeps him just inside the top 100 overall at #98.
1.29 Colorado Rockies – P Paul Adler: B
Paul Adler was my Scouts’ 7th best pitcher on the board, but I have him rated a little higher at #4. The value of a starting pitcher, especially a Lefty as Adler is, is tremendous. Right now he does not project any obvious flaws. With the potential for 60 stuff, 50 movement, 55 control he has the makings of a middle to backend of rotation guy. His pitches feature an elite changeup, a plus-plus curveball and a plus cutter, of which the last two may be affected by average movement.
1.30 Atlanta Braves – LF David Roddy: C-
Let us introduce “Blink”, the 30th overall pick in the draft and the final pick of the first round - David Roddy! A little bit of a stretch according to The Index, ranked at #132 overall and the 51st hitter of the draft, David has a well rounded hit tool, but will barely be an average outfielder. With 60 potential contact, 60 potential Gap Power and 70 Potential Home Run Power and an average Eye, Roddy may make multiple trips to the All-Star Game.
The first round of this draft leaned heavily towards Powerful Bats with good contact. A few of the lower graded picks were due to the undervaluing of 1Bs and DH’s by The Index. Only a couple “misses” here in the first round, but with time and the development of these prospects, we shall find out the true winners and losers of the 1993 Draft.
Below are the Index Scores, Rankings and Differentials that were used in the creation of this Draft Grading Article.
