Goergen Chasing History

Joe Goergen’s career has been something of a roller-coaster ride.

Highly touted as a college player, he was selected sixth overall by the Padres in the 1973 draft. At the age of 21, it was crystal clear that he possessed unreal power potential. In 1974, he was ranked the #18 prospect in baseball, and in 1975 he moved up to #11.

There was just one big problem: he struck out A LOT. In his time in the minor leagues, he had a 26% strikeout rate. And unfortunately, this didn’t change once he got to the major leagues. In 1977, he had the sixth most strikeouts. In 1978 and 1979, the fourth most. In 1982, the second most.

In spite of this, he has still flashed the potential to be a great power hitter. He has led the league once in home runs (1982), and has finished in the top 10 two other times. At his best, he was a 4 WAR player with a WRC+ of 146 in 1979. Still, it seems like he hasn’t been able to fully unlock the monstrous potential that's being held back by his free-swinging approach.

Until now, that is. In his second season with the White Sox, it appears he has figured it out. From 1976-1982, he had a 20.7% strikeout rate. So far in 1983, he is sporting a 15.5% rate. And along with his strikeout rate, many of his other rate stats have improved.

Year	SO%	SLG	ISO	wOBA	wRC+
1977	21.5	.478	.216	.350	122
1978	22.8	.417	.161	.320	105
1979	18.9	.537	.232	.393	146
1980	16.8	.340	.087	.292	81
1981	19.7	.392	.148	.305	92
1982	20.5	.485	.222	.346	113
1983	15.5	.583	.279	.399	159

(Injured for most of 1980, only 113 PA)

It looks like Goergen has finally filled out the potential that scouts in the early-70’s were drooling over. And now, he has the chance to put his name in the record books. As of September 5th, he has hit 40 home runs, and he’s on pace to hit 48. The current record is 50, hit by Jamie Borruso in 1979. If Goergen gets hot, it’s definitely possible for him to take the throne. Let’s see what happens.