Putting the "Wild" in NL Wildcard

During a typical season, we can expect to have a pretty good idea of how the postseason will shape up by the time September rolls around. Maybe there are a few races left to be decided, but we know who the contenders are and who is thinking ahead to next year. This is true of the American League: all three division leaders hold secure leads, and there are three teams seriously in the running for the Wildcard spots.

However, this isn't quite the case for the National League.

For the division leaders, it should be mostly smooth sailing into October; Cincinnati and San Francisco are both light-years ahead of their competition, and Montreal has a healthy 5.5 game lead. However, when we get to the NL Wildcard, things get spicy.

NL Wildcard Standings (as of 09/05)

Team	Wins	Losses	Winning Pct.	Games Behind
New York Mets	70	63	.526	+0.5
Pittsburgh Pirates	68	62	.523	-
St. Louis Cardinals	70	64	.522	-
Florida Marlins	68	65	.511	1.5
Houston Astros	68	66	.507	2.0
Philadelphia Phillies	66	65	.504	2.5
Atlanta Braves	68	67	.504	2.5
Chicago Cubs	66	67	.496	3.5

8 of the 11 non-division-leaders are vying for the 2 Wildcard spots. Let's take a look at them!

New York Mets - 70-63, +1.5 GB

The Mets sit atop the NL Wildcard standings, and they still have an outside shot at winning the division. Their greatest strength is by far their bullpen. They lead the NL in bullpen ERA with a team figure of 1.98, and their staff as a whole are 2nd in strikeouts with 825. Also, despite just average offensive numbers, they have scored the fourth most runs in the NL, in part because of their ability to get on-base and steal often. In order to protect their small lead, they will need to perform well against competitors like Houston, Pittsburgh, and Philly, while also pulling out some games against tougher opponents like San Francisco and Cincinnati.

Pittsburgh Pirates - 68-62, 0 GB

The Pirates have a very well-rounded offense, with 6 offensive players putting up 3+ WAR so far. Their pitching staff is good, but not great, and is helped out greatly by their top-rate defense. The keys to their season will be trying to limit runs allowed, making up the production lost by Manny Chavez's tragic accident, and hoping the offense can continue to win games.

St. Louis Cardinals - 70-64, 0 GB

The defending champs have regressed quite a bit from their 100-win season last year, but they're still a force to be reckoned with. Led by star rookie Jesse Duch, and with the help of their outstanding defense, their pitching staff is among the best in the league. They lead the NL in hits allowed and opponents' average, are second in runs allowed and walks, and third in strikeouts. However, the same praise can not be expressed for their offense. The Cardinals rank poorly in most categories. If the Cardinals want a chance to defend their title in the playoffs, they need their offense to step it up quite a bit.

Florida Marlins - 68-65, 1.5 GB

It seems like things are finally coming together for the young expansion team after years of predictably horrible performance. They've gotten good contributions from a variety of their young players. Their team ERA has been stellar (3.28), and with the help of their ballpark they have been very effective when it comes to shutting down opposing teams' power. The key to their success will be finding a way to fill ace Elias Laguna's quality innings.

Houston Astros - 68-66, 2 GB

The Astros are hunting for their first playoff appearance since joining the league in 1962, and they're pretty hot coming into September. They have been very good at preventing runs with a defense-first approach. They currently lead the NL in team zone rating. Their biggest issue so far has been their struggle against left-handed pitching; they have a 14-32 record versus left-handed starters. They will need to find a way to fix this problem, or hope that their pitching and defense can perform even better to make up for it.

Philadelphia Phillies - 66-65, 2.5 GB

The Phillies have an electric offense, led by speedster and four-time stolen base champion Chase Notch. They rank highly in batting average, slugging percentage, OPS, and, obviously, stolen bases. They also have the advantage of many of their remaining games being at home; only 6 of their final 31 games will be away games. Their pitching numbers have been a bit lackluster, but their staff is definitely talented, and now would be a great time for them to make use of that talent.

Atlanta Braves - 68-67, 2.5 GB

The Braves' offense has really shined this year. Led by Robbie Ekdar and Cameron Buerkley, they have lapped the NL in terms of hits with almost 100 more than the 2nd place Giants. However, their pitching is a different story. They are 10th in the NL in strikeouts, 11th in home runs allowed and walks, and 12 in team ERA. The question is if their offense will be enough to cover up their pitching.

Chicago Cubs - 66-67, 3.5 GB

The Cubs' season thus far can be mostly summed up by looking at two categories: walks and home runs. On offense, they have led the league in both, and this has been enough to give them the second most runs in the NL. But, on the other side of the coin, they are 13th in home runs and walks allowed. Another cost of their offensive production has been defense, as players have played out of position all over the diamond in order to get their bats in the lineup. Chicago is in a similar spot to Atlanta, where in order to win they'll just have to outscore their opponents.